3.8
Investigate time series data
Time Series Trend
Internal
AS91580
No more line
http://2014stats.wikispaces.com/3.8+Time+Series

Time Series 2013 3.8 Time Series INTERNAL

FaceBook groups: Good source for sharing links and getting feedback.
http://www.facebook.com/groups/2013Statistics/ for ALL Pakuranga College Statistics Students.
http://www.facebook.com/groups/2013stats/ for Ms Allan's Classes.
3.8 Time Series Videos (First lesson in the lab)
3.8 Time Series Print part of Internal
3.8 Time Series Check List

3.8 Time Series PASSING

3.8 Time Series Merit

3.8 Time Series Excellence

3.8 Time Series Lesson Log
You Tube Channel to Search http://www.youtube.com/user/allanpriscilla
Achievement
Achievement with Merit
Achievement with Excellence
Investigate time series data.
Investigate time series data, with justification.
Investigate time series data, with statistical insight.
http://www.nzqa.govt.nz/ncea/assessment/view-detailed.do?standardNumber=91580
http://ncea.tki.org.nz/Resources-for-aligned-standards/Mathematics-and-statistics/Level-3-Mathematics-and-statistics
is the standard
is the food for thought sample task
is the data for food for thought
is the polar ice sample task
is the data for polar ice
Exemplars
http://www.nzqa.govt.nz/qualifications-standards/qualifications/ncea/subjects/mathematics/exemplars/level-3-as91580-b/


http://new.censusatschool.org.nz/resources/3-8/
Video for teachers
Video for students
https://www.youtube.com/user/allanpriscilla/videos?flow=list&query=3.8&view=0&sort=dd for Ms Allan's Video for 3.8

Follow The PPDAC cycle
- Select a variable to investigate
- Identify features in the data and relating this to the context
- Find an appropriate model (additive)
- Use the model to make a forecast
- Communicate findings in a conclusion

Make sure you
- investigate the context of the data (do not rely on your existing knowledge)
- know how to use iNZight (this is the easy part)
- communicate your reasoning (this is the important part)

This internal uses a software application from the University Of Auckland called iNZight
It is free, and you can download it from here: http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~wild/iNZight/dlw.html
In the computer labs at school you must access it from the start menu, under ALL programs > Mathematics > iNZight
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face book stats time series

Retail Sales in New Zealand

Step by step how to use iNZight from http://course.statslc.com/mod/resource/view.php?id=483
Thanks to: Dr Nicola Ward Petty
Dr Nicola Ward Petty has taught business statistics and operations research at the
University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand for over twenty years.
She is developing resources for 2013 NCEA Level 3 Statistics.
Dr Nic's blog is worth reading http://learnandteachstatistics.wordpress.com/
Stats Learning Centre for Students with free resources and more for sale
http://statslc.com/
The videos are great https://www.youtube.com/creativeheuristics/

is the data
are the step by step instructions

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Practise Internal Polar Ice: Exemplar Answers Provided

and
You WILL be given the topic of the internal prior to the internal.
You are expected to KNOW the topic.

We will go through the process together, using these links (and more that you find).
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/
www.newscientist.com/article/dn16988-why-antarctic-ice-is-growing-despite-global-warming.html
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/antarctic_melting.html


Link for Me: http://new.censusatschool.org.nz/resource/polar-ice-time-series/




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Vocab

Additive model (for time-series data)
A common approach to modelling time-series data (Y) in which it is assumed that the four components of a time series, trend component (T), seasonal component (S), cyclical component (C), and irregular component (I), are added to form the values of the time series at each time period.
In an additive model, the time series is expressed as: Y = T + S + C + I.
From http://seniorsecondary.tki.org.nz/Mathematics-and-statistics/Glossary/Glossary-page-A#additiveModel

The Time Series module of the FREE software package iNZight uses two different statistical models. The model used to obtain the series decomposition is called a Seasonal Trend Lowess and the model used to calculate predictions is a Holt-Winters model.
Quote from http://new.censusatschool.org.nz/resource/teachers-guide-to-holt-winters-analysis/
Students just use these models.